AGP Executive Report

U.S.-Canada Trade War Hits New Targets: The White House announced an import ban on specific Canadian dairy products, most alcohol and motorcycles starting Sept. 29, alongside tighter federal procurement rules—another escalation after Canada retaliated with tariffs on about $20B of U.S. goods. Mexico-U.S. Deal Race: Mexico and the U.S. are reportedly pushing for an interim trade agreement before the U.S. midterms, aiming to ease some U.S. tariffs while addressing demands on auto content and Chinese investment. Mexico Business & Supply Chains: A Univar Solutions Mexico distribution deal with LANXESS expands access to lubricant and metalworking fluid additives, signaling continued investment in industrial inputs. Food Safety Reputation Risk: A survey highlights how recalls can quickly hit consumer trust and sales, with cyclospora linked to Taylor Farms de Mexico cited as a recent example. Energy Costs Watch: Diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time, raising transport costs that can feed into consumer prices. Cross-Border Security & Labor: A report describes ICE using “reinstatement of removal” to deport workers without a hearing, underscoring ongoing friction for cross-border families and labor markets.

U.S.-Canada Trade War Hits Mexico-Linked Markets: The White House announced a Sept. 29 ban on Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycles as the tariff fight with Ottawa intensifies, with officials pointing to procurement exclusions and “lack of reciprocity.” China Targets Mexico in Trade: China extended an anti-dumping probe into pecan imports from the U.S. and Mexico through March 25, 2027, after provisional measures and security deposits. Mexico Energy Budget Pressure: Mexico is cutting Pemex support by as much as 70% in the next budget, despite expectations of a cash surplus from higher oil prices. Digital Payments Push: Mastercard launched “Wallet Pay” to help wallets interoperate globally, partnering with major providers across regions. Cybersecurity Watch: Researchers flagged an Android banking malware technique using Google Work Profiles to evade fraud controls, with losses reported in Indonesia. Cross-Border Business & Tourism: Baja California promoted medical tourism in San Diego, pitching certified clinics and services to Californians. Local Economy & Expansion: Qdoba signed a development deal for 17 new San Diego-area restaurants over 7–10 years. Food & Health Compliance: A San Antonio bakery faced reinspection after pests and temperature-control violations were found.

Trade & Tariffs: China extended an anti-dumping probe on pecans from the U.S. and Mexico, keeping steep levies in place and pushing the review to March 25, adding pressure to already tense trade ties. Mexico–Korea Business: Mexico’s ambassador in Seoul said the two economies are deeply integrated via 2,000+ Korean firms in Mexico and cooperation in space, clean energy, AI and advanced industries, while Korea urged renewed talks on a bilateral free trade deal. Logistics & Cross-Border Services: Sheer Logistics won awards for managed transportation services in the U.S. and cross-border Mexico excellence, highlighting growing demand for supply-chain integration. Sports Betting & Media: Codere Online became the NFL’s official betting partner in Mexico under a multi-year deal covering NFL Mexico events and Super Bowl LXI sponsorship. Energy & Industry: Mexico’s battery-storage push is back in focus, with reporting that the country plans 2.2 GW of storage for its state utility by 2030. Mining & Exports: UMCC says it may draw about $70M more from NEQSOL over two years if export controls on rutile and zircon concentrates are lifted, aiming for breakeven by 2028. Corporate Hiring: DATAMARK plans to add 400+ jobs in El Paso this fall tied to new and expanding contracts.

Mexico-US Trade & Politics: Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies advanced a constitutional reform that would require presidential, governor and Mexico City mayor candidates to hold “sole Mexican nationality,” forcing dual nationals to renounce foreign citizenship to run—raising new questions for business and border-linked families. US-Canada Trade War Spillover: The U.S. moved further against Canada with import bans on selected Canadian goods (including alcohol, some dairy and motorcycles), with economists warning targeted sectors could be hit hard and uncertainty could push businesses to delay or relocate. Mexico Security & Governance: The U.S. designated Ecuador’s Los Tiguerones as a foreign terrorist organization, citing links to Mexican cartels—an escalation that keeps cross-border drug-finance and violence risks in focus for the region. Mexico Business & Investment: Mexico is also pursuing a national security screening regime for foreign investment, signaling tighter scrutiny on deals tied to sovereignty concerns. Corporate Moves: Fortune Brands Innovations named Peter G. Clifford as CFO effective Sept. 21, while Glance hired François Gioux as Sales Director to expand commercial strategy across the Americas and beyond.

Mexico’s REITs & AI/manufacturing tailwinds: BIVA chief Maria Ariza says Mexico’s FIBRAs could attract capital for industrial parks, logistics and infrastructure tied to the AI boom and North American supply chains, even as USMCA uncertainty lingers. Plastics treaty pushback: INC chair Julio Cordano’s “Aid to negotiations” draft is criticized by scientists and civil society for weak language and missing upstream life-cycle provisions ahead of late-September talks in Bangkok. Fintech funding in Mexico: Kapital raises $125M from Tru Arrow Partners and Fasanara Capital to expand its AI-powered B2B financial platform across Mexico and other markets. Compliance tech expands: LCT launches a new credit-union CUSO with One Washington Financial, AKUVO and SWBC to deliver automated compliance for cancellations and refunds. Crypto crime in Mexico: Authorities link a deadly $1.5M crypto stash robbery to a Mexican family’s killing, highlighting ongoing risks around stolen digital assets. Cross-border enforcement pressure: A judge orders the return of a Mexican national deported after a family visit, citing due-process violations. Global trade noise hitting Mexico-linked supply chains: US-Canada tariff escalation and the yen carry-trade jitters are adding volatility for investors watching North American trade flows.

Canada-U.S. Tariff War Hits the Ground: Canada’s retaliatory duties of up to 50% on about $20B of U.S. goods took effect Tuesday, covering hundreds of product categories from metals and paper to dairy and building materials, while the U.S. escalated with plans to ban some Canadian alcohol, motorcycles and other items starting Sept. 29. Auto Supply-Chain Pressure: U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy criticized Ford’s China-linked partnerships in a letter, prompting Ford to push back and defend its U.S. manufacturing footprint. Mexico Angle on Trade & Investment: EU officials say trade openness must pair with stronger economic security, pointing to recent EU free-trade deals including Mexico. Clean Fuel Incentives: The IRS issued guidance for the Section 45Z Clean Fuels Production Tax Credit, aiming to help U.S. farmers and ranchers access the domestic biofuels market. Local Economy Watch: A UIC study estimates Chicago-area Latino communities cut spending after the “Midway Blitz” immigration operation, costing Cook County about $1.26B in lost business activity. Finance & Restructuring: LIV Golf filed for Chapter 11 in New Jersey, listing assets of $100M-$500M and liabilities of $500M-$1B, with players among major unsecured creditors.

Mexico-US Cross-Border Investment: Mexico Business Lawyers launched an “Investment Preparedness” self-assessment and framework aimed at helping U.S. investors coordinate legal, tax, and operational planning before committing capital to Mexico. Mexico Security & Energy: Puebla authorities dismantled a large crypto-mining operation tied to illegal electricity connections, expanding the probe into possible energy theft in nearby municipalities with CFE, FGR and the Navy involved. Trade & Border Pressure: Mexico and the U.S. launched a joint anti-drone operation at the Tijuana border as drone activity reportedly fell after U.S. deployed a laser system. Business Expansion Signals: Bausch Health and YUN expanded their skincare collaboration into Mexico, adding probiome-friendly eczema and acne solutions; meanwhile, FlixBus and Autobus Maheux partnered to sell Quebec intercity routes through FlixBus, improving booking access across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. Real Estate Tech in Baja: International Land Alliance rolled out an AI lead-generation tool for its Baja developments, aiming to cut marketing costs while keeping a high-touch sales process.

US-Canada Trade Flashpoint: President Trump told Bombardier it can’t sell jets in the U.S. unless it starts building in America, as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs (up to 50%) are set to hit U.S. goods Tuesday—raising fresh uncertainty for North American supply chains. Cross-Border Cost Pressure: In Minnesota, hockey families are already seeing steep jumps in gear prices, with Canada-linked tariffs threatening even higher costs for sticks, skates and goalie equipment. Mexico-China Diplomacy: China’s foreign minister urged Mexico ties to stay free of “third-party influence” while calling for deeper political and economic cooperation, with bilateral trade topping $100B in 2025. Mexico Business & Energy: Woodside expanded its PEMEX cooperation framework around deepwater work tied to Trion, signaling continued focus on Mexico’s offshore opportunities. Mexico Logistics Disruption: In Laredo, Texas, bridge closures and Loop 20 standstill were reported after Mexican systems went down, underscoring how quickly cross-border operations can stall. Banking Deal With Mexico Link: EverBank agreed to acquire WaFd in a $3.9B reverse merger, creating a larger regional bank—watch for knock-on effects in regional lending. Security Tech at the Border: A U.S. laser system helped cut cartel-linked drone activity along the Rio Grande Valley by about 75% in under two weeks. Travel & Connectivity: Alaska Airlines launched a new seasonal nonstop to Loreto from San Diego, reinforcing Mexico travel demand from the U.S. market.

Mexico-US Trade & Security: Mexico extends the deadline for strategic storage projects to Oct. 30, a move that could affect energy logistics and supply planning. Cross-Border Enforcement: U.S. restricts government travel to a Mexican border city over threat concerns, underscoring how security reviews are shaping business travel and operations. Mexico’s Investment Rules: Mexico proposes a national security review regime for foreign investment, signaling tighter screening for inbound capital. Mexico-Linked Crime & Finance: DOJ nails a cartel intermediary in a $4M crypto money laundering scheme, highlighting continued pressure on illicit finance networks tied to Mexico. Mexico’s Economy Watch: A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study points to Mexico as a key driver behind the decline in the dollar’s share of global reserves—more about a few large managers than a broad de-dollarization trend. Industry & Innovation: Ondine Biomedical strikes a deal with Mexico’s largest private…

Mexico-Canada-US Trade Friction: A U.S.-Mexico trade deal is framed as a must-win for Detroit as tariff uncertainty continues to rattle cross-border investment and jobs. Local Security & Crime: A Detroit restaurant owner faces allegations of laundering money to Mexico, spotlighting how local businesses can get pulled into international schemes. Infrastructure & Tourism: Mexico is pouring about $100M into a full rebuild of Highway 8 to Puerto Peñasco after a rough tourism year, aiming to restore the key Arizona-to-Rocky Point corridor. Aviation & Regional Connectivity: TAG Airlines relaunches the Mérida–Flores (Guatemala) direct flight, boosting multi-destination travel across the Maya World. Business & Travel Growth: Bamba Experience Group highlights how specialist travel brands are evolving from backpacker roots into multi-brand operations. Crypto & Payments: Bitget Wallet expands stablecoin-to-naira conversion via direct bank transfers in Nigeria and Mexico, betting on growing formal remittance rails. Public Safety: Mexican authorities report a fireworks explosion in central Mexico that killed at least 10 and injured 64. Energy/Climate Watch: NOAA warns a very strong El Niño is likely for 2026–2027, with major implications for Texas weather planning.

Mexico-US Real Estate Fraud: A San Diego court sentenced Mexican nationals Victor Hugo Villalobos Almazan and Nayeli Noemi Montoya Rodriguez to prison for a scheme that sold homes they didn’t own and laundered about $1M in proceeds, highlighting how cross-border fraud can hit Mexico-linked buyers and lenders. AI Advertising in Mexico: OpenAI expanded ad testing beyond the U.S. to Mexico by August, with ad revenue now topping a $1B annualized run rate—another sign AI platforms are pushing deeper into consumer marketing. Crypto Custody Shock (Latin America): Tether-backed Orionx in Chile began permanent closure after an audit found a $7M+ custody shortfall; withdrawals are suspended while restitution is planned, a reminder for Mexico’s fintech and crypto users to watch custody controls. Trade & Food Policy Spillover: U.S. GRAS rule tightening and beef tariff fallout are still driving uncertainty for North American food supply chains that Mexico businesses rely on. Local Business Culture: Sazón Celestial’s fast rise from a food truck to a paid-off, six-days-a-week spot shows how small Mexican food brands are scaling through community demand.

U.S.-Mexico Security: The U.S. says it shot down 300+ cartel-linked drones along the Mexico border, with about 100 intercepted in August, as officials warn the devices are used for smuggling and surveillance. Cartel Tactics: Mexico’s security chief says cartels are increasingly using car bombs and explosives-laden drones, with a recent blast in Zacatecas injuring 11 and damaging dozens of homes. Border Biosecurity: A Reuters probe highlights how illegal horse trafficking can bypass veterinary checks, raising new risks after screwworm was detected in Texas earlier this year. Property & Legal Planning: Baja California’s “Testamento Month” returns with discounted will registration through September, aiming to make estate planning cheaper for residents. Local Business: Aguas Maria’s owner opened a new Mexican restaurant in Idaho Falls, expanding from aguas frescas stands and food trailers into a full dining spot. Household Finance Snapshot: A global savings comparison puts Mexico’s net household saving rate at 8.1%, above several major economies but below top savers like Sweden.

Wolf Protections Under Review: A new U.S. executive order would push a review of federal protections for gray and Mexican wolves, raising fears of expanded killing and pressure on state rules. Fed vs. Trade Threats: President Trump renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, warning he could halt trade with deficit countries—an escalation that could rattle markets and supply chains. Mexico Border Security: The U.S. says it has shot down 300 cartel-linked drones along the Mexico border since the start of 2026, while Mexico’s security officials point to smugglers’ use. Cartels Turn to Explosives: Mexico reports a rise in car bombs and other explosive attacks, including a blast outside a police station in Zacatecas that injured 11. Nearshoring & Freight: U.S.-Mexico border freight is reported to have surged at Laredo, underscoring how logistics shifts are reshaping trade flows. Mexico Business & Investment: Mexico’s Highway 8 modernization plan to Rocky Point is highlighted as a $100M push to upgrade infrastructure and support tourism and trade.

U.S.-Mexico Trade & Border Logistics: A pilot program will extend Saturday hours at the World Trade Bridge (Laredo) by three hours starting Oct. 5, aiming to reduce delays and help trucks clear before daily cutoffs. Mexico Business & Investment: Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) reported August passenger traffic up 2.6% year-on-year across its 12 airports, with Guadalajara (+10.5%) and La Paz (+13.2%) leading while Mexicali fell (-11.5%). Crypto & Payments: Coinbase’s Base rolled out 25 new integrations in August, including MXNB, a Mexican peso-pegged stablecoin via Bitso—another push to deepen onchain rails for remittances and commerce. U.S. Policy With Mexico Spillovers: Trump signed cattle-industry executive orders covering wolf management (including a review of Mexican wolves), beef country-of-origin labeling, and tougher scrutiny of meatpackers—moves that could reshape cross-border beef flows and labeling rules. Enforcement & Finance: A Detroit restaurant owner was arrested in a case alleging international money laundering that prosecutors say sent $140M+ to Mexico-linked cartel networks.

Mexico-US Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit jumped 24.4% to $88.6bn in July, with the goods gap with Mexico widening to $27.5bn—another reminder that cross-border supply chains remain under pressure. Mexico National Security Policy: Mexico sent a constitutional reform initiative to Congress that would bar dual nationals from top elected roles (presidency, state governorships, and Mexico City head of government), tightening rules around nationality for senior leadership. Foreign Investment Screening: Mexico is also pushing a national security review regime for foreign investment, aiming to scrutinize takeovers more closely. Nearshoring & Tech Supply Chains: Mexico is positioning itself for higher-value semiconductor work tied to Taiwan’s ecosystem, with states like Chihuahua pitching packaging and testing as a first step up the supply chain. Finance & Banking: Revolut received conditional approval from the U.S. OCC for a national bank charter, targeting a 2027 launch—potentially reshaping competition in digital banking. Energy & Industry Signals: Volkswagen flagged 50,000 job cuts and model reductions amid competition and tariff pressure, underscoring how trade policy is feeding into corporate restructuring.

USMCA Agriculture: A new round of U.S.-Mexico-Canada talks next month is set to shape future farm access and prices, with agriculture still one of the biggest cross-border business engines. Trade Imbalance: The U.S. trade deficit hit $88.6B in July, the highest since March 2025, as AI-driven imports lifted technology purchases and gaps with Mexico widened. Mexico FDI/Policy: Mexico’s Sheinbaum proposes national security screening for foreign investment, signaling tighter rules for deals tied to strategic sectors. Auto Industry Pressure: Volkswagen approved a major turnaround plan including 50,000 job cuts and fewer vehicle variants as tariffs and Chinese competition squeeze margins—an echo of the broader North American auto trade fight. Cuba Sanctions Spillover: The U.S. imposed new Cuba sanctions targeting parts needed to keep the power grid running, adding to regional instability that can affect logistics and energy costs. Mexico-Linked Crime: U.S. prosecutors described cocaine smuggling into Georgia hidden in shipments of transformers and limes, with proceeds laundered back to Mexico. Energy/Environment: Baja California highlighted traditional cooks as part of a broader push to grow culinary tourism and local food economies.